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Technical University of Crete (2013)

Spatiotemporal drought analysis and climate change impact on hydrometeorological variables for the island of Crete

Vrochidou, Angeliki-Eleni

Titre : Spatiotemporal drought analysis and climate change impact on hydrometeorological variables for the island of Crete.

Auteur : Vrochidou, Angeliki-Eleni

Université de soutenance : Technical University of Crete (TUC)

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2013

Résumé

The Mediterranean climate has been the focus of intense research on climate related issues. Climate change is expected to increase the risk of high drought frequency and duration. The Mediterranean region has been characterized as one of the main climate change “Hot-Spots” while it is quite vulnerable to its effects. The increasing frequency of extreme drought events in comparison to the past conditions constitutes one of the biggest concerns. The present PhD thesis focuses on the study of drought phenomena on the island of Crete. At first, combined methodology helped investigating the influence of elevation and longitude on precipitation distribution, offering valuable information about the linkage between these geographical factors and droughts. This connection provides an important clue for the respective spatial drought pattern, which is produced with the aid of the Spatially Normalized Standardized Precipitation Index (SN-SPI) for the period 1974–2005. Further analysis with the use of three Global Climate Models (GCMs) output (precipitation and temperature) and results from hydrological model IHMS-HBV for drought assessment at a basin scale was carried out. The produced hydrological variables (flow, soil moisture and lower groundwater reservoir volume) were used for the hydrological regime assessment, drought identification and projection till 2100 from two emission scenarios aspects. In addition, drought assessment and projection for the island of Crete was performed with the aid of thirteen GCMs output(precipitation), using the new scenarios based on the Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The above findings aim to an improved understanding of drought mechanisms as well as to the future strategic planning for drought management.

Mots Clés : Precipitation ; Climate change ; Drought ; Drought index ; HYDROLOGICAL MODEL ; Crete

Présentation de la thèse (National Archive of PhD)

Version intégrale

Page publiée le 5 avril 2015, mise à jour le 14 novembre 2016