Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Titre : İran’ın kuzeybatısında kuraklık ve verim ilişkisinin analizi İŞKİSİNİN ANALİZİ

Analysis of relationship between drought condition and crop production in northwest part of Iran

Auteur : HASANIHA Hosseinali

Université de soutenance : Ankara University

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2008

Résumé
Drought in many of countries like Iran is one of the most important phenomena and issues to be considered. Especially during the last 20 years its intensity has been gradually increased. This study has been done in Northwest part of Iran which is highly influenced from of drought to display the relationship between drought analysis and the efficiency of the agricultural products. For this propose precipitation data has been normalized using the Box-Cox Transformations Method and then analyzed by seven international drought indices.Indices used include Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Percent of Normal Index (PNI), China-Z Index (CZI), Modified CZI (MCZI), Z-Score (ZSI), Standard Deviation Index (SDI) and Deciles Index (PDI).
Considering the viewpoint of drought classification, SPI, CZI and MCZI indices are coordinated and (PDI) and (SDI) indices has shown drought intensity more. According to the yield forecasting CZI and MCZI indices are very important in research area. In this research, 55-year statistical data has been used to anticipate future 30-year precipitation by ARIMA Method. Finally, the efficiency of future 30-year of agricultural products has been estimated by the Stepwise Linear Regression Method and some other models extracted from it. According to the results in the future the yield of rainfed crops will be decrease

Mots clés : Kuraklık, Verim, Kuraklık İndeksleri, İran’ın Kuzeybatısı, Tahmin, Öngörme, Buğday, Arpa, Nohut, Mercimek ve Yonca, : Drought, Yield, Drought Indices, Northwest Part of Iran, Estimate, Forecast, Wheat, Barley, Chickpea, Lentil and Alfalfa.

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