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Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (2010)

Estudo dos processos de gestão de seca : aplicação no estado do Rio Grande do Sul

Albuquerque, Tatiana Máximo Almeida

Titre : Estudo dos processos de gestão de seca : aplicação no estado do Rio Grande do Sul

Auteur : Albuquerque, Tatiana Máximo Almeida

Université de soutenance : Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul

Grade : Doctorate 2010

The risk management in hazards like drought is very important to reduce social impacts, and to rationalize the natural and financial resources. To minimize the drought impacts, several countries take into account some indexes to its detection, quantification and evaluation. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is very applied around the world, and evaluates the variation of the precipitation in some timescale. Also, the Aridity Index (AI) is applied by UNESCO for climate characterization. These indexes should be a part of the plan of drought management risk. Usually, the drought policy of Brazil prioritizes the crisis management, with several negative impacts for decades in the Brazilian Northeast, and nowadays in Rio Grande do Sul. In 2004 and 2005, 450 municipals declared state of emergency by drought, with the biggest loss of harvest in local history. The research aim is to evaluate the drought management methodology of the Civil Defense of Rio Grande do Sul, and propose warning system based on SPI and AI as part of a risk management system to assess, forecast and plan actions against drought. This risk management system should include objective criteria to declare state of emergency and state of calamity, and guidelines for a drought plan. Comparing the results of drought indexes and declarations of state of emergence from 1991 to 2005, the number of coincidences was very low. Also, the dry regions detected by drought indexes were different of the regions with state of emergence. Thus, it can be concluded that the actual methodology for drought management is inefficient. It was proposed and tested a warning system for droughts of short term (agricultural), based on AI (monthly and quarterly), and droughts of long term (hydrological), based on SPI (annual). The AI identified the south of state as the drier, and the SPI identified the northeast. Both indexes identified the same periods of drought (months and years), but the AI, due the dry sites identified, best represents the local climatology. Thus, it was proposed a recast of the Civil Defense methodology for drought management, considering warning system and analysis of local data to identify the regions most vulnerable to dry periods

Mots clés  : Gestão ambiental Gestão de risco Seca — Drought, Drought indices, Drought plan, Risk management, State of emergency


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