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Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (2006)

Análise da operação de sistemas de reservatórios utilizando lógica difusa, redes neurais artificiais e sistemas neuro-difusos

Costa Lima Henrique Vieira

Titre : Análise da operação de sistemas de reservatórios utilizando lógica difusa, redes neurais artificiais e sistemas neuro-difusos

Auteur : Costa Lima Henrique Vieira

Université de soutenance : Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul

Grade : Doctorate 2006

Résumé
The use of mathematical models in the analysis of water resources systems grew enough since the decade of 1960. One of the main areas of application of the models is in the planning and in the operation of systems of reservoirs. Two approach types can be adopted for the solution of this problem type : traditional approach, based on techniques of operational research, and approach by intelligent systems (artificial intelligence – AI). The Models in AI have as main characteristic the flexibility of inclusion of expressed rules in a language of easy understanding that incorporate in the modeling the specialized knowledge and the experience of the operators. In spite of the importance of the subject and of the potential of the techniques, the apprenticeship of current development is lacking of theoretical recital that it systematizes the actors’ practice in the processes. Researches that close this gap are necessary so that better is known the advantages and disadvantages of the applied Intelligent Systems to the operation of systems of reservoirs. Techniques based on fuzzy logic, artificial neural networks and neuro-diffuse hybrid systems were chosen for test. The objective of the research is to investigate the potential of these techniques for the process of decision in the operation of systems of reservoirs. The definitions and implementations of the methodological outlines proposed in this research and their applications in the study of case of the system that supplies the metropolitan area of Fortaleza confirmed the hypothesis of the research for two of the three appraised techniques – the models based in fuzzy logic and the models based in artificial neural networks. The third tested technique – Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System – presented unsatisfactory results. The main contributions of this research to the state of the art are : definition of methodological outlines using approaches based in intelligent systems in the obtaining of operational politics for systems of reservoirs in semi-arid areas ; inclusion, in the intelligent systems for obtaining of operational politics, of semantic variables (qualitative) indicative of the climatic forecast, evaluating as much the improvement of the process of operation of the reservoirs as the current potential mistakes of mistaken forecasts ; use, together, of clustering techniques and of learning in the construction of diffuse expert systems for operation of systems of reservoirs ; construction and use, for the diffuse expert systems of operation of reservoirs, of assigned models, avoiding the "Lack of Knowledge".

Mots clés  : Reservatorios : Sistemas interligados ; Sistemas inteligentes

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