Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Accueil du site → Doctorat → Allemagne → Risk assessment with regard to the occurrence of malaria in Africa under the influence of observed and projected climate change

Universität zu Köln (2010)

Risk assessment with regard to the occurrence of malaria in Africa under the influence of observed and projected climate change

Ermert, Volker

Titre : Risk assessment with regard to the occurrence of malaria in Africa under the influence of observed and projected climate change

Auteur : Ermert, Volker

Université de soutenance : Universität zu Köln.

Grade : Doctoral Thesis 2010

Résumé partiel
Malaria is one of the most serious health problems in the world. The projected climate change will probably alter the range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. In this study, potential changes in the malaria transmission are assessed by forcing three malaria models with bias-corrected data from ensemble scenario runs of a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) from the Geography Department of the University of Liverpool is utilised. The LMM simulates the spread of malaria at a daily resolution using daily mean temperature and 10-day accumulated precipitation. The simulation of some key processes has been modified in the model, in order to reflect a more physical relationship. An extensive literature survey with regard to entomological and parasitological malaria variables enables the calibration and validation of a new LMM version. Comparison of this version with the original model exhibits marked improvements. The new version demonstrates a realistic simulation of entomological variables and of the malaria season, as well as correctly reproduces the epidemic poten tial at fringes of endemic malaria areas. Various sensitivity experiments reveal that the LMM is fairly sensitive to values of its required parameters. Effects of climatic changes on the malaria season are additionally verified by the MARA Seasonality Model (MSM). The Garki model finally enables the completion of the malaria picture in terms of the immune status and the infectiousness of different population groups, as well as relative to the age-dependent prevalence structure. In every case three ensemble runs were performed on a 0.5° grid. The LMM was driven for the present-day climate (1960-2000) by bias-corrected data from the REgional MOdel (REMO), with a land use and land cover specified by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Malaria projections were carried out for 2001-2050 according to the climate scenarios A1B and B1 as well as FAO land use and land cover changes. Garki model runs were subsequently forced by the Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) from the LMM. Finally, additional results relative to the malaria season were produced by MSM. For the present-day climate (1960-2000), the highest biting rates are simulated for Equatorial Africa. The malaria runs show a decrease in the malaria spread from Central Africa towards the Sahel. The length of the malaria season is closely related to monsoon rainfall. The model simulations show a marked influence of mountainous areas causing a complex pattern of the spread of malaria in East Africa.

Mots clés  : Malaria, Klima, Klimawandel, Afrika, Malariamodellierung — malaria, climate, climate change, Africa, malaria modelling

Présentation

Version intégrale (52 Mb)

Page publiée le 2 janvier 2016, mise à jour le 8 janvier 2019