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Technische Universität Dresden (2014)

Renewable energy in North Africa - Modeling of future electricity scenarios and the impact on manufacturing and employment

Philipp Kost Christoph

Titre : Renewable energy in North Africa - Modeling of future electricity scenarios and the impact on manufacturing and employment

Auteur : Philipp Kost Christoph

Université de soutenance : Technische Universität Dresden

Grade : Doctorum Rerum Politicarum (Dr. rer. pol) 2014

Résumé
The transition of the North African electricity system towards renewable energy technologies is analyzed in this thesis. Large potentials of photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and onshore wind power provide the opportunity to achieve a long-term shift from conventional power sources to a highly interconnected and sustainable electricity system based on renewable energy sources (RES). A multi-dimensional analysis evaluates the economic and technical effects on the electricity market as well as the socio-economic impact on manufacturing and employment caused by the large deployment of renewable energy technologies.
The integration of renewable energy (RE) into the electricity system is modeled in a linear optimization model RESlion which minimizes total system costs of the long-term expansion planning and the hourly generation dispatch problem. With this model, the long-term portfolio mix of technologies, their site selection, required transmission capacities and the hourly operation are analyzed. The focus is set on the integration of renewable energy in the electricity systems of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt with the option to export electricity to Southern European countries. The model results of RESlion show that a very equal portfolio mix consisting of PV, CSP and onshore wind power is optimal in long-term scenarios for the electricity system. Until the year 2050, renewable energy sources dominate with over 70% the electricity generation due to their cost competiveness to conventional power sources. In the case of flexible and dispatchable electricity exports to Europe, all three RE technologies are used by the model at a medium cost perspective.
The socio-economic impact of the scenarios is evaluated by a decision model (RETMD) for local manufacturing and job creation in the renewable energy sector which is developed by incorporating findings from expert interviews in the RE industry sector. The electricity scenarios are assessed regarding their potential to create local economic impact and local jobs in manufacturing RE components and constructing RE power plants. With 40,000 to 100,000 new jobs in the RE sector of North African countries, scenarios with substantial RE deployment can provide enormous benefits to the labor market and lead to additional economic growth.
The deployment of renewable energy sources in North Africa is consequently accelerated and facilitated by finding a trade-off between an optimal technology portfolio from an electricity system perspective and the opportunities through local manufacturing. By developing two model approaches for evaluating the effects of renewable energy technologies in the electricity system and in the industrial sector, this thesis contributes to the literature on energy economics and energy policy for the large-scale integration of renewable energy in North Africa.

Mots clés  : Erneuerbare Energien, Nordafrika, Energiesystemmodellierung, Stromsystem, Optimierung, Wertschöpfung, Lokale Fertigung — Renewable Energy, North Africa, Energy System Modeling, Electricity System, Optimization, Value Added, Local Manufacturing

Présentation de la thèse (QUCOSA)

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Page publiée le 2 janvier 2016, mise à jour le 2 décembre 2018