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Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn (2013)

Efficient water allocation and water conservation policy modeling in the Aral Sea basin

Bekchanov Maksud Bahodirovich

Titre : Efficient water allocation and water conservation policy modeling in the Aral Sea basin

Auteur : Bekchanov Maksud Bahodirovich

Université de soutenance : Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn

Grade : Doktor der Agrarwissenschaften (Dr.agr.) 2013

Increasing water demand challenges policy makers to implement in-time and effective water management measures to mitigate both the on-going and upcoming water crisis in the Aral Sea basin (ASB) of Central Asia. The shrinkage of the Aral Sea due to the rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture along the two main rivers of the basin – the Amu Darya and Syr Darya – which accompanied by water overuse is at the core of the all water related problems. Various hypothetical “solutions”, including massive inter-basin water transfers, have been considered to ease the water challenge. Yet, given the enormous conveyance and water application losses in the irrigation system combined with ineffective coordination of the basin resources among the riparian countries in both the Amu and Syr Darya basins, increasing the efficiency of using internal water resources is more technically and financially feasible option. Furthermore, water management measures must address the root causes of water scarcity and ecological deterioration rather than attempting to deal with the consequences of the problem only. This study examines therefore three important options for addressing the core reasons of aggravated water (ab)use in the ASB. In the first option, sectoral transformations (e.g., economic restructuring) are considered by prioritizing economic activities with relatively high economic growth impacts and low water consumption requirements. In the second option, it is assessed to replace the current administrative water management institutions with more effective market-based water allocation institutions to encourage cooperation among regional water users for attaining optimal basin-wide benefits. In the third option, technological and infrastructural improvements are evaluated following an increased efficiency of the irrigation systems and building reservoirs in the upper reaches of the rivers to regulate river flow. Economic restructuring was analyzed by ranking all economic sectors based on their sustainable economic growth potentials using an environmentally extended input-output model. The forward and backward linkages and the total (direct and indirect) water requirements of the different economic activities were estimated and compared as well. The results indicated that water demand in the ASB can be reduced substantially by decreasing the production of the water intensive sectors such as agriculture in favor of the development of less water demanding, non-agricultural sectors. Within the agriculture sector, crop diversifications are recommendable, e.g. by partially replacing rice cultivation and cotton production, which have the highest total (direct and indirect) water use contents of 36 m3 /USD and 18.4 m3 /USD respectively, with high water productive crops such as fruits/vegetables with total water use of 9.1 m3 /USD.

Mots clés  : Water rights trading, Transaction costs, Environmental flow, Hydro-economic model, irrigation technology, infrastructural development, Rogun dam, Kambarata reservoir, Sectoral transformation, Virtual water, Input-output analysi

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Page publiée le 18 janvier 2016, mise à jour le 31 décembre 2018