Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Titre : Evaluación del cambio climático y sus impactos sobre los cultivos de trigo, maíz y agave de la Región Ciénega de Chapala (Análisis retrospectivo y análisis prospectivo)

Auteur : Zarazúa Villaseñor Patricia

Université de soutenance : Universidad de Guadalajara

Grade : Doctorado en Ciencias en Biosistemática, Ecología y Manejo de Recursos Naturales y Agrícolas 2011

Description
A challenge that our country faces today is the impact of climate change, which will be reflected in a lot of activities. The National Development Plan 2007-2012 considers the necessity of evaluating the climate change impacts on agricultural activities at a regional scale in order to determine the best mitigation and adaptation measures. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to evaluate the climate and agro-climate under retrospective and prospective views, and to estimate their impacts on three crops in the Ciénega de Chapala Region. We used databases of ten weather stations from Comisión Nacional del Agua for the period 1961-2006. In order to determine the representative data period of the present climatology in the Region, a means-comparison analysis was made between the periods 1961-1990 and 1977-2006 considering the parameters annual mean maximum temperature, annual mean minimum temperature, annual mean temperature and annual cumulative mean precipitation. The data base of monthly mean temperature and precipitation anomalies from UNAM was validated and used to estimate the future climatic scenarios, which is derived from an ensemble GCM model. We chose the A2 greenhouse gases emission scenario to extract the climatic anomalies values. With these data and using different methods to determine agro-climatic parameters, the possible climatic change impacts were estimated in regard to three agricultural specie ; corn as a representative crop of spring-summer season, wheat corresponding to the fall-winter cycle, and agave representative of a semi-perennial cycle

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