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Accueil du site → Doctorat → Mexique → Cambio climático y potencial productivo agrícola de especies forrajeras en la región Centro-Occidente de México

Universidad de Guadalajara (2011)

Cambio climático y potencial productivo agrícola de especies forrajeras en la región Centro-Occidente de México

Durán Puga Noé

Titre : Cambio climático y potencial productivo agrícola de especies forrajeras en la región Centro-Occidente de México

Auteur : Durán Puga Noé

Université de soutenance : Universidad de Guadalajara

Grade : Doctorado en Ciencias en Biosistemática, Ecología y Manejo de Recursos Naturales y Agrícolas 2011

Description
The study was conducted for the Central-Western region in Mexico including the states of Zacatecas, Durango, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa and Colima. The objectives were to determine trends in annual mean maximum temperature (Tx), annual mean minimum temperature (Ti), cumulative annual precipitation (Pna) for the period 1961-2003, and two decades (2031-2040 and 2051– 2060) ; and the productive potential of eleven forage grasses was estimated based on the agroclimatological requirements and the climate change scenaries. Two case studies were carried on to evaluate the effect of climate change on pasture production in the state of Jalisco ; and to study the efficacy of bilinear method (MB) and the curvilinear method (MC) to estimate cardinal temperatures for development in seed-stage emergency and thermal requirements of these species. Data from 371 stations of the National Water Commission distributed in the study region were used. The trends of Tx, Ti and Pna were evaluated based on the characterization of the hydrolgical zones. The climate change scenaries and the raster images for Tx, Ti and Pna were estimated using the assembly general circulation model for the 2031-2040 and 2051-2060 decades. Agroecological requirements of species were determined from several publications of FAO, and potential areas were delineated using IDRISI Andes system 15.0. A multiple regression model was generated to estimate yield (ton/ha) of forage grasses based on climatic variables, and the statistical information from data related to temporary forage grasses production of the municipalities in Jalisco

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