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Doctorat
Mexique
Cambio climático y potencial productivo agrícola de especies forrajeras en la región Centro-Occidente de México
Universidad de Guadalajara (2011)
Cambio climático y potencial productivo agrícola de especies forrajeras en la región Centro-Occidente de México
Durán Puga Noé
Titre : Cambio climático y potencial productivo agrícola de especies forrajeras en la región Centro-Occidente de México
Auteur : Durán Puga Noé
Université de soutenance : Universidad de Guadalajara
Grade : Doctorado en Ciencias en Biosistemática, Ecología y Manejo de Recursos Naturales y Agrícolas 2011
Description
The study was conducted for the Central-Western region in Mexico including the states
of Zacatecas, Durango, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa and Colima. The
objectives were to determine trends in annual mean maximum temperature (Tx), annual
mean minimum temperature (Ti), cumulative annual precipitation (Pna) for the period
1961-2003, and two decades (2031-2040 and 2051– 2060) ; and the productive potential
of eleven forage grasses was estimated based on the agroclimatological requirements and
the climate change scenaries. Two case studies were carried on to evaluate the effect of
climate change on pasture production in the state of Jalisco ; and to study the efficacy of
bilinear method (MB) and the curvilinear method (MC) to estimate cardinal temperatures
for development in seed-stage emergency and thermal requirements of these species.
Data from 371 stations of the National Water Commission distributed in the study region
were used. The trends of Tx, Ti and Pna were evaluated based on the characterization of
the hydrolgical zones. The climate change scenaries and the raster images for Tx, Ti and
Pna were estimated using the assembly general circulation model for the 2031-2040 and
2051-2060 decades. Agroecological requirements of species were determined from
several publications of FAO, and potential areas were delineated using IDRISI Andes
system 15.0. A multiple regression model was generated to estimate yield (ton/ha) of
forage grasses based on climatic variables, and the statistical information from data
related to temporary forage grasses production of the municipalities in Jalisco
Page publiée le 9 septembre 2016, mise à jour le 31 janvier 2023
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