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Wageningen University (2015)

The effects of food price shocks on household welfare in Palestine

Peereboom, Anna

Titre : The effects of food price shocks on household welfare in Palestine

Auteur : Peereboom, Anna

Université de soutenance : Wageningen University

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2015

Résumé
Palestine suffers from closure policies implemented by the Israeli government, causing abundance and shortage of products not allowed in or out of the region. This causes price shocks, which affect household welfare and poverty. Especially price shocks on food products could potentially have detrimental effects. In order to analyse the extent of effects from these closure policies, household welfare and poverty in Palestine is analysed regarding price shocks. This is done using the method proposed by Deaton (1989), analysing the Net Benefit Ratio. The initial situation describes the 2011 levels of income and poverty. Using these, price simulations indicate the effects on household real income and poverty for both the short and the long term. A negative price shock has detrimental effects on household real income, causing some households to experience a decrease of almost 50% of their budget. The poverty rate more than doubles, implying that more than half the Palestinian population is considered poor. In order to analyse the probability of the effects of this price shock, bootstrap estimation is performed. This shows that the likelihood of these effects is quite high. Furthermore, it shows that the average effects of a price shock are negative. This would imply a decrease in household real income and an increase in the overall poverty rate of Palestine.

Mots clés : Price shock, food consumption, expenditures, welfare, poverty, net benefit ratio, bootstrap estimation

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Page publiée le 12 novembre 2016, mise à jour le 18 octobre 2018