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University of Khartoum (2016)

Socio-Economic Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies in the Gum Arabic Belt of North Kordofan, Sudan

Khalifa, Awad Elkarim Suliman Osman

Titre : Socio-Economic Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies in the Gum Arabic Belt of North Kordofan, Sudan

Auteur : Khalifa, Awad Elkarim Suliman Osman

Université de soutenance : University of Khartoum

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2016

Résumé
The broad objective of this research was to study the socio-economic impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies adopted by local communities in the gum Arabic belt of North Kordofan State (Bara Locality). The primary data was collected through face-to-face interview with local people, group discussions with key informants, and observations. A random sample of 140 respondents was selected from six villages in Bara Locality. Moreover, two cloud free Landsat TM 4-5 satellite imagery scenes were utilized to depict the impact of climate change on the land use types for the period 1986 and 2011. Social data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test and binary logistic regression. Remote sensing data was analyzed using unsupervised classification and Change detection analysis. The main findings of the research are ; the indicators of climate change, as perceived by the respondents, are ; frequent drought cycles (99.3%), erratic nature of rains (91%), dust storms (74.1%), increase of temperature (67%), and increase of wind speed (63.6%). These findings were supported by the analysis of normalized annual rainfall for the last three decades (1984-2013) and annual temperature anomalies. T-test analysis for crop productivity for the last ten years and the last year revealed reduction in production of the agricultural crops (Millet, sorghum, sesame, and Roselle) significantly at (p> 0.05). The impact of climate change on biodiversity showed retrogression succession where dominant trees lost their dominance for less preferred tree species, particularly A. senegal as indicated by 83.3% of the respondents. Analysis of remote sensing data for the land cover types showed shrinkage of vegetation cover from 9.3% in 1986 to 7.8% in 2011, and increase of sand dunes from 69.5% to 77% during the same period. T-test analysis for the last ten years and the last year indicated a decline of areas covered by A. senegal, stocking density, gum production and income from gum arabic at (p>0.05). The impacts of climate change on livestock are represented in deterioration of range lands (80.7%), animal mortality (72.9%) and changing of stock structure (2.1%). The main locally driven adapatation strategies to climate change are adoption of improved seeds (41.6%), fallow periods (81.4%), expansion of A. senegal plantations (42.9%), establishment of Gum Arabic Producing Associations (18.6%), fisheries (40%), shelterbelts (40%), energy alternatives (40.7%), change of traditional houses (74.3%) and adoption of communal forests (10%). The logistic regression model revealed the household socio-economic factors determining farmers’ choice and adoption of adaptation strategies. The main conclusion drawn from this study is the fact that climate change is recognized as a real challenge for the sustainable livelihood of local communities in the study area, and this necessitates the intervention of the different governmental institutions to enhance the locally driven adaption options of local communities.

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Page publiée le 21 août 2016, mise à jour le 13 novembre 2018