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Trent University (2016)

Modeling drought derivatives in arid regions : A case study in Qatar

Paek, Jayoeng

Titre : Modeling drought derivatives in arid regions : A case study in Qatar

Auteur : Paek, Jayoeng

Université de soutenance : Trent University (Canada)

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2016

Résumé
We propose a stochastic weather model based on temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind speed for Qatar, as a representative arid region, in order to obtain simulated values for a drought index.
As a drought index, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is commonly accepted in agriculture and is used to measure drought severity. It can be used to price weather derivatives to help farmers reduce financial losses from drought. RDI, which is the ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration, is calculated by considering crop growth stages. The use of different crop coefficient value depending on the growth stage to calculate evapotranspiration can provide improved values for RDI. Additionally, six calculation methods for evapotranspiration using weather data are investigated to obtain accurate values for RDI.

Mots clés : Stochastic weather models, Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Evapotranspiration, Stochastic differential equations (SDEs), Mean reversion pro- cesses, Markov chains, crop coefficients

Présentation et version intégrale

Page publiée le 21 novembre 2016, mise à jour le 5 février 2018