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Accueil du site → Doctorat → Allemagne → Modeling crop yield and farmer adaptation to rainfall variability : the case of Southern Ethiopia

Universität Hohenheim (2016)

Modeling crop yield and farmer adaptation to rainfall variability : the case of Southern Ethiopia

Bocher, Temesgen Fitamo

Titre : Modeling crop yield and farmer adaptation to rainfall variability : the case of Southern Ethiopia

Auteur : Bocher, Temesgen Fitamo

Université de soutenance : Universität Hohenheim

Grade : “Doktor der Agrarwissenschaften” (Dr. sc. agrar./ Ph.D. in Agricultural Sciences) 2016

Contexte
Few studies have attempted to analyze the direct effects of rainfall variability on crop yield and its indirect effect on household welfare. Therefore, this thesis aimed at filling the knowledge gap on the impacts of rainfall variability on crop yield and welfare. Moreover, the study explores the role of adaptation strategies in mimicking the negative effects of rainfall variability accounting for household performance decision under resource constraint for Ethiopian farmers.
The study employed Mathematical Programming Based Multi-Agent System (MP-MAS) computer simulation techniques to analyze the effects of rainfall variability on crop yield, household welfare and the role of adaptation strategies in mitigating the adverse effects of rainfall variability. Prior to application to the study, the MP-MAS simulation model is parametrized, calibrated, and validated using data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (ERHS), primary data collected from the research area and thirty year rainfall time series data obtained from meteorological stations located near to the study area.

Mots clés  : crop yield , farmer adaptation , rainfall variability , Southern Ethiopia, adaptation strategies, smallholder households ; Äthiopien, Regenfeldbau, Kleinbauernbetrieb, Einkommenssteigerung , Mathematische Modellierung , Mehragentensystem

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Page publiée le 4 octobre 2016, mise à jour le 14 juillet 2017