Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Accueil du site → Master → Espagne → Cálculo de aportaciones futuras en un sistema de recursos hídricos en condiciones de sequía. Aplicación a la cabecera de la cuenca del río Júcar

Universitat Politècnica de València (2014)

Cálculo de aportaciones futuras en un sistema de recursos hídricos en condiciones de sequía. Aplicación a la cabecera de la cuenca del río Júcar

Escudero Castillo, Maria José

Titre : Cálculo de aportaciones futuras en un sistema de recursos hídricos en condiciones de sequía. Aplicación a la cabecera de la cuenca del río Júcar.

Auteur : Escudero Castillo, Maria José

Université de soutenance : Universitat Politècnica de València

Grade : Máster Universitario en Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente-Màster 2014

Description
River flow prediction models, and specifically the mathematical models on which they are based, are fundamental tools for the adequate management of water resources in drought conditions. The analysis of the uncertainty related to future contributions requires the use of statistical techniques, such as the widely used Montecarlo technique for the simulation of multiple series. The main objective of this Master thesis is to analyze, compare and apply two methodologies for the analysis of future hydrology in a catchment area, in drought conditions. The validation of these methodologies is made through their application in the hydrographic basin of the headwaters of the river Júcar. On the one hand, the Témez hydrological model is applied. This is a deterministic model, where the parameters are dependent on the initial humidity of the soil and the volume of water stored in the aquifer. The forecast of the river flow volume is obtained from the synthetic generation of monthly precipitation series. On the other hand, the future characteristics of the hydrological system are estimated through the application of an ARMA stochastic model, specifically the AR (1). The series of river flow contributions obtained by both methods are analyzed and the percentiles which determine the flow predictions up to the end of the hydrological year, September, are calculated. From these results a simple graphic prediction is carried out with the construction of approximate estimate curves. Finally, the obtained results determine that the methodology developed of calculation of river flow contributions by means of the hydrological model of Témez, from the synthetic generation of monthly precipitation series, reduces the uncertainty in 30-70 %, with regard to other methods purely stochastic.

Mots clés : Modelación Estocástica ; Simulación Monte Carlo ; Gestión ; Previsión ; Sequía ; Stochastic ; Stochastic Modelling ; Simulation Monte Carlo ; Management ; Forecast ; Drought ; Ingenieria Hidraulica ; Máster Universitario En Ingeniería Hidráulica Y Medio Ambiente-Màster Universitari En Enginyeria Hidràulica I Medi Ambient

Présentation

Page publiée le 9 décembre 2016, mise à jour le 25 juin 2018