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UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft (2011)

Policies for sustainable development : developing a vulnerability assessment on climate change impacts on Mongolian agricultural sector

Gantumur, A.

Titre : Policies for sustainable development : developing a vulnerability assessment on climate change impacts on Mongolian agricultural sector

Auteur : Gantumur, A.

Etablissement de soutenance : UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2011

Résumé
Mongolia is placed in the central part of the Asiatic continent. The country is bordered on the north by Russia and on the east, south, and west by China. It has a total area of 1.565.000 sq.km. It is the 7th largest country in terms of area and 18th largest country in the world (D.Davgadorj 2009). Mongolia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive countries to climate change due to the rapid growth number of livestock : fragile ecosystem, land degradation and other related environmental and socio-economic problems. Agriculture is a crucial sector of the Mongolian economy and it is fundamentally dependent on the weather. This research study purposes to define the vulnerability situation on agricultural sector (crop production) of Mongolia under climate change conditions at the regional level. Based on the research study, some of the proper adaptation strategies will be recommended in case of the particular districts of Selenge province. The crop production is concentrated in the northern part of central of Mongolia, particular in Selenge province, specifically wheat production area. The province’s arable soils are characteristically dark chestnut soils that are typical soils evolved with steppe vegetation. Organic matter content is 3% to 4% with pH ranges from 6.0 to 7.0. Soils are shallow (average depth of 30 cm) even in the crop producing provinces of Selenge and others where conditions are most suited for intensive agricultural production. In Selenge province, only valley bottomland and lower slopes of hills are cultivated because of greater soil depth and higher soil moisture retention. Principal crops produced on cultivated land are cereal grains, potatoes and vegetables The CROPWAT FOR CLIMWAT model is used to simulate current and future crop water demand of the irrigated area in the north part of the central region. The meteorological data were obtained from the Mongolian Water Board, Mongolian National Statistics websites and CLIMWAT model program. The FAO Crop requirements approach is typically used to represent agricultural water demand. A period of 1970 - 2007 of meteorological data and a period of 2009 of land use data were chosen for the base year estimation. Based on the IPCCs report (IPCC 2007), two types of climate change scenarios were designed to study the future climate impacts for crop water requirement and irrigation water demand. The main factor which will affect the vulnerability to climate change is the evapotranspiration due to the increase of temperature during the summer time in Mongolia. Sensitivity analysis shows that irrigation water demand of all types of crops will increase most likely in the area, under all two scenarios.

Sujets  : sustainable development ; climate change ; vulnerability assessment ; policy ; agriculture ; Mongolia

Présentation

Page publiée le 4 janvier 2017, mise à jour le 13 octobre 2018