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Universidad de Buenos Aires (2015)

Numerical climatology of land surface-temperature coupling and of dry spells in South America : feedbacks, uncertainty and climate change

Zaninelli, Pablo Gabriel

Titre : Numerical climatology of land surface-temperature coupling and of dry spells in South America : feedbacks, uncertainty and climate change

Climatología numérica del acople suelo-temperatura y de períodos secos en Sudamérica : retroacciones, incertidumbre y cambio climático

Auteur : Zaninelli, Pablo Gabriel

Université de soutenance : Universidad de Buenos Aires

Grade : Doctor en el área de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos 2015

Résumé partiel
In this PhD thesis the interactions among variables associated to land surface-atmosphere coupling processes, their possible links with dry spells length and their potential changes under an intermediate emissions scenario of GHG were studied in South America (SA). To do this, numerical simulations data generated with regional climate models were used. Moreover, it was evaluated the skills of reanalysis to reproduce the climatology of austral summer maximum temperature and winter minimum temperature in southeastern of SA (SESA). The inherent uncertainty due to use of data from reanalysis of maximum (TX) and minimum temperature (TN) in SESA is studied through the comparison of seasonal mean fields and the variability of the three reanalysis with an observational dataset for the period 1961-2000. The bias of ensemble of reanalysis presents similar magnitudes for both variables, but the dispersion among reanalysis datasets is greater in summer. The bias in temperature is, hence, in part linked to the error in determination of the sensible and latent heat flux as well as the net surface radiation. The errors in the geographical distribution of spatial anomalies of temperature have a similar magnitude for both reanalysis and regional climate models analyzed. The changes in daily and interannual variability and extremes of maximum temperature of summer and minimum temperature of winter between periods 1981-2000 and 1961-1980 are also studied. The geographical pattern of change of daily variability between both periods and for both variables is similar to geographical pattern of change of extremes. In Argentina, there is a decrease in the frequency of hot days in summer and cold nights in winter, consistently with a decrease in daily variability. The changes between both periods suggest a shift toward southwest in the zone of maximum interannual variability of maximum temperature according to the observational climatology, possibly linked with changes in precipitation variability. In general, the reanalysis analyzed have difficulties to reproduce the main geographical patterns of changes in daily and interannual variability of studied variables between both periods. The response to climate change of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration (ET) for austral summer is analyzed in SA using projections of three regional models. The local feedbacks between land surface and atmosphere can help to the links among these variables in some regions of SA. The projected changes of precipitation for 2071-2100 present a positive response in SESA. The interannual variability of ET has a geographical distribution similar to the variability of temperature, with a maximum in SESA, suggesting that these two variables are intercorrelated. In the present climate, SESA is a transition zone where ET depends on surface water availability (soil moisture-controlled regime). Although the projections show that ET regime will remain soil moisture-controlled, the magnitude of correlations between temperature and ET decrease (in absolute value) for 2071-2100 in areas where increase soil water availability.

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Page publiée le 1er octobre 2017, mise à jour le 13 février 2020