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Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE) 2015

Tendências de temperatura e precipitação e cenários de mudanças climáticas de longo prazo no Nordeste do Brasil e em ilhas oceânicas

LACERDA, Francinete Francis

Titre : Tendências de temperatura e precipitação e cenários de mudanças climáticas de longo prazo no Nordeste do Brasil e em ilhas oceânicas

Auteur : LACERDA, Francinete Francis

Université de soutenance : Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)

Grade : Doutor em Engenharia Civil 2015

Résumé
In Northeast Brazil, and particularly in Pernambuco, precipitation and temperature are among the most important meteorological variables for studies of climate change, since their spatial and temporal variability characterize the local climate. The aimswith this study were to determine the presence of long-term precipitation and temperature trends in Pernambuco, with the use of climate change detection rates, based on observational data from weather stations on the continent and on oceanic islands and to conduct a water balance study for the diagnosis of water availability and numerical simulations with regional atmospheric model nested in the global scenario of climate change, the Hadley Centre climate model. This work contains the diagnosis of climate change in the State of Pernambuco locations and in the Atlantic Ocean Tropical islands with data daily time temperature series and precipitation over 40 years with future scenarios of climate change in the region, for the period of 2010 to 2050. The results showed increasing trends of maximum temperatures and reduced average annual rainfall at all stations inspected. Also, a tendency to aridificação in the Sertãoand in the Agreste of Pernambuco was detected. The analysis of climate data on oceanic islands showed a small heating in Fernando de Noronha and a marked warming trend and aridificação in Cape Verde, similar to long-term trends detected in Araripina, in the semiarid region of Pernambuco. Trends in temperature and precipitation observed are indicative that aridificação processes in Pernambuco and Cape Verde are on the way. The results of the water balance and its projections indicated a decrease in water availability in the soil and total precipitation and increased evapotranspiration rates, in almost all areas over the years. The weather simulations were consistent with the data of the stations in relation to this warming rate ; the climate change scenarios for 2010-2050 indicated a faster increase in the maximum daily temperatures in the Northeast compared to simulations of the recent past.

Mots Clés : Detection and scenarios of climate change. Aridification.Increased temperatures.

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