Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Accueil du site → Master → Brésil → Projeção da mortalidade para os espaços geográficos do semiárido brasileiro

Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB) 2017

Projeção da mortalidade para os espaços geográficos do semiárido brasileiro

Melo, Ianne Rafaella Santos

Titre : Projeção da mortalidade para os espaços geográficos do semiárido brasileiro

Auteur : Melo, Ianne Rafaella Santos

Université de soutenance : Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB)

Grade : Mestrado em Modelos de Decisão e Saúde 2017

Résumé
The increase in life expectancy registered in the last decades in Brazil was one of the most important achievements of society and brought new challenges in several areas of human knowledge. In order to know the future behavior of life expectancy, the goal of this work was to project the mortality of the Brazilian Semi-Arid from 2015 to 2050. The following methodological steps were performed : obtaining the correction factors of the deaths. Construction of complete Mortality Tables, assembling of databases with the age structure of annual mortality rates from 1980 to 2014, application of the Lee-Carter method for projection of mortality levels and patterns. This method combines a demographic model with a time series model. The projected life expectancies for the year 2050 for the Semi-arid States ranged from 78.25 to 83.82 years. It was concluded that the method produced plausible estimates of mortality levels and standards for most of the geographical areas of the Semi-Arid States, whose Mortality Tables produced may constitute important subsidies in the planning of health and welfare actions and in decision making for the populations of the Semiarid.

Mots Clés : Método de Lee-Carter Projeção Tábuas de Mortalidade Lee-Carter Method Projection Mortality Tables

Présentation

Version intégrale (2,01 Mb)

Page publiée le 8 août 2017