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Centro de Investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste (CIBNOR) 2013

Variabilidad de la precipitación en el norte de México : forzamientos oceánicos y atmosféricos y su relación con incendios forestales

Domínguez Duarte, Susana

Titre : Variabilidad de la precipitación en el norte de México : forzamientos oceánicos y atmosféricos y su relación con incendios forestales.

Auteur : Domínguez Duarte, Susana

Etablissement de soutenance : Centro de Investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste (CIBNOR)

Grade : Maestría en Ciencias en el Uso, Manejo y Preservación de los Recursos Naturales 2013

Résumé
In northern Mexico the studies revealed changes in precipitation in the last nine decades, toward increasing precipitations in some areas and declining precipitations in other areas. In this work it was verified if those changes display a regional pattern of trends, if they have been mainly affected by temperature variations of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and in addition if these changes are related with the increasing trend observed in forest fires in the study area. The study area comprises the border States of northern Mexico (including the States of Baja California and Baja California Sur). It was divided in seven regions considering the limits of the main hydrologic basins. For each region the mean values of summer, winter and annual periods was estimated using daily rainfall (pp) data updated till 2011. It was determined if there were significant differences between the statistics of the series and if the adjusted slope to each regional average series was significant at the 95%- level. A simple lag-correlation analyses between the regional average series and some climate indices (ALPI, AMO, NAO, NPI, ONI and PDO) was also performed. A similar was also applied between the historical series of forest fires and the accumulated rainfall series, displaying statistically significant trends at the 95%-level, and between the forest fire series and the climate indices. The regression analysis applied to the regional mean series showed statistically significant trends in four regions, which were significantly correlated with some climate indices, and where at interdecadal and regional scales, the AMO and PDO displayed the highest correlation values. Additionally significant correlations were found between the rainfall series and the number of forest fires in Sonora and Baja California, but with different behaviors in the structure of the series, suggesting that differences between the States could be related with their type of vegetation. The AMO proved to be the dominant index in the correlation analysis between climate indices and forest fire series. The results of this work demonstrate that rainfall trends in northern Mexico display a regional pattern and that the higher variance explained of the series is from the AMO and PDO. This result means that the configuration of the series is highly correlated with the temperature variations occurred in the Atlantic (through the AMO) and the Pacific (through the PDO), with dominance from the Atlantic ocean. The correlation analysis also shows that the increase in the number of forest fires in many cases is related to the AMO and in the particular for Baja California this relationship can be useful in making predictions (r=0.79).

Mots Clés : Patrón regional de lluvia ; índices climáticos ; incendios forestales

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