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China Meteorological Research Institute (2017)

The Drought Variation and Economic/Population Exposure in the Pearl River Basin under the Climate Change


Titre : The Drought Variation and Economic/Population Exposure in the Pearl River Basin under the Climate Change

Auteur : 罗岚心

Grade : Master’s Theses 2017

Université : China Meteorological Research Institute

Nearly,the risks of extreme weather phenomena are increasing along with global warming.The development of economy and society is bogged down by droughts and other weather disasters.Pear River Basin(PRB)used to be a bustling hub with highly developed industry and agriculture.However,in recent years it suffered droughts frequently due to climate change.Drought becomes an obstructer in PRB.This study presents the analysis of dryness in PRB from 1960-2014.The potential drought events and their exposure in economy and population under Warming 1.5℃ Scenario or Warming 2.0℃ Scenario are investigated through the projected result from regional climate model CCLM under the help of Intensity-Area-Duration(IAD)method.This research can be used to understand the climate disaster risk as a basic theory.The results are as following:1.The drought in autumn gets worse especially in Yunnan and Guizhou Province.At the same time,spring drought is less severe than before.Since 1960 s,PRB has showed the dryness condition with the highest frequency and the strongest intensity.And it has gotten worse since the 21 th century.The analyses of atmospheric circulation show : The extreme drought events occur when Subtropical High over West Pacific moves away from the continent.2.It’s proven that the climate model CCLM is able to reproduce climate condition in the PRB based on the Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs).Under RCP2.6 scenario,the dryness condition presents in the second half of the 21 st century ;PET keeps going down.Temperature has little increase.Under RCP4.5 scenario,dryness and wetness phenomenon alternate each other ;PET and temperatures slightly increase.Precipitation decreases at the second half of the 21 st century.PET and temperature obviously increase under RCP8.5 scenario and drought shows after 2070 s.3.In the future,the drought frequency increases while the intensity maintains as usual.The impacted area under Warming 1.5℃ Scenario is similar with it under Warming 2.0℃ Scenario.But the intensity under 2.0℃ Scenario gets much higher,especially at Zhanjiang and Yangjiang,Guangzhou Province.4.Drought Economic Exposure(DEE)under 2.0℃ Scenario is slightly higher than it under 1.5℃ Scenario.Population Exposure doesn’t have much different in both scenarios.However,Zhanjiang,Yangjiang in Guangzhou province and the Zhujiang Delta are exposing themselves to the drought hazard.The administration in these areas need pay more attention to pre-disaster prevention.In order to mitigate climate change,we should do our best to maintain global warming under 1.5℃

Mots clés : Drought; Pearl River Basin; Climate Change; Economic Exposure; Population Exposure

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 11 septembre 2017