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Freie Universität Berlin (2014)

Modeling Hydrological Responses to Changes in Land Cover and Climate in Geba River Basin, Northern Ethiopia

Ashenafi, Abraha Adugna

Titre : Modeling Hydrological Responses to Changes in Land Cover and Climate in Geba River Basin, Northern Ethiopia

Die Modellierung hydrologischer Veränderung auf Landbedeckungs- und Klimawandel im Geba River Basin, Nord Äthiopien

Auteur : Ashenafi, Abraha Adugna

Université de soutenance : Freie Universität Berlin

Grade : Doctoral 2014

Résumé
This study addresses the past and potential future land cover and climate changes and their impacts on the hydrological response of Geba River Basin, Northern Ethiopia. The socio-economic development and food security of this area is limited by the high variable rainfall, serious water shortage and poor watershed management. In order to supplement rain-fed agriculture with other technological options, detailed understanding of the hydrological response of the basin and the impact to changes in land cover and climate is crucial. The analysis of the long-term hydrological and meteorological data reveals that the climate in the Geba River Basin is changing slower than the global average. Climate change scenarios were downscaled from general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080. Landsat satellite images are analyzed to classify past land cover changes. Using these change detection analysis and Ethiopian Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategies on agricultural development, three future lands cover scenarios are developed for the year 2030. Based on the collected primary and secondary data, the hydrological model SWAT 2009 (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to investigate the impact of land cover and climatic change on the stream flow. Surface runoff, interflow, base flow, ground water recharge and seasonal and annual evapotransipration are the main outputs of the model. Accordingly, about 61% of the precipitation in the basin is lost through evapotranspiration, 18% becomes surface runoff, and 8% is recharging the deep aquifer. The scenario analysis results show the implication of reduced water availability and impacts on agricultural production.

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