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Université normale de la Chine de l’Est (2014)

A Study of the Complex and Nonlinear Investigation of Climatological-hydrological Process in the Tarim River Basin

刘祖涵;

Titre : A Study of the Complex and Nonlinear Investigation of Climatological-hydrological Process in the Tarim River Basin

Auteur : 刘祖涵;

Grade : Doctoral Dissertation 2014

Université : Université normale de la Chine de l’Est

Résumé
Global warming has currently accelerating in the troposphere and one of the consequences that derived from climate change is the chaotic variations of weather and water cycle on the earth surface. Extreme weather events have been observed all over the world, particularly for the pattern and intensity of climatological-hydrologic-al process. The Tarim River Basin, a typical arid area, is a sensitive area of climatological-hydrological change ; many researchers have launched a lot of research and discussion about it. It seems evident that the understanding of the complex dynamic characteristics of climatological-hydrological process can contribute to developing advanced techniques for climatological-hydrological forecasting. The accurate forecast can help to develop effective warning strategies to reduce impacts on climatological-hydrological environment.Climatological-hydrological system is composed by several subsystems, and by the interaction of multi spheres, multi factors, multi scale. One or more ways can be internal or external interaction among subsystems, which result in interaction structure of more complex form not only in the time, but also in the space. The results form complex-huge system with oppression outside and nonlinear dissipative inside, and the whole show its complexity. There are many influence factors of climatological-hydrological system, for example, human activities, geographical location, complex surface characteristics and so on. But these factors are not independent of each other, but there are nonlinear interactions at various spatial and temporal scales. These reasons result in which the time evolution process of climatological-hydrological process shows inherent nonlinear and external complex characteristics.For the above question, the author has introduced the fractal theory, chaos theory, complex network theory and GIS technology to study complexity and nonlinear characteristics of regional climatological-hydrological process. On this basis, the authorinvestigates the temporal evolution dynamics of the process further. At last, the author sets up the self-organized critical theory of regionalclimatological-hydrological factors, and interprets the fractal structure of regional climatological-hydrological process.The main works and conclusions in this study are as follows:1. Firstly, the long memory and scaling properties of average daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, evaporation and daily runoff of Kaidu River are investigatedby rescaled range analysis (R/S), detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and spectral analysis. The results show that the temporal scaling behaviors in the five series all exhibit two different power laws. In shorter temporal scaling, all series indicate thesimilar persistence corresponding to the annual cycle. However in longer temporalscaling, the trends are different for the five series, which reflect the different inherentdynamic nature of various climatological-hydrological factor series. The fluctuations of Hurst exponent, DFA exponent and power spectrum exponent with increasing the threshold magnitude are analyzed. Secondly, long-range cross correlations between each pair of five indices are revealed by the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis method (DCCA). We find that the double logarithm curve F2(s)~s two or even three scale-invariant regions are presented. Lastly, Supported by the GIS technical and based on the CoKriging method, the space distribution for the degree of long memory for climatological-hydrological process in Tarim River Basin is analyzed.2. According to chaos theory, through reconstructing the phase-space for the series of average daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, evaporation and daily runoff of Kaidu River in Tarim River Basin, and calculates their three characteristic quantities, including the maximum Lyapunov exponent λ1, Kolmogorov entropy K and the correlation dimension D, with Rosenstein and G-P algorithm respectively. All results show obvious chaotic and fractal characteristics in the five series, which are the result of the evolution of non-linear chaotic dynamic system. The climatological-hydrological process in the Tarim River basin also has deterministic and stochastic characteristic. Supported by the GIS technical and based on the CoKriging method, the space distribution for the degree of chaotic and complexity for climatological-hydrological process in Tarim River Basin is analyzed. We find that the bigger for the values of three characteristic quantities is, the stronger the chaotic and complexity are in region with complicated climate change is, runoff and higher altitudes. However, the values of three characteristic quantities are smaller in desert hinterland, which the chaotic and complexity is weaker. Furthermore, the lower (higher) the correlation dimension D, the higher (lower) the level of the system, and the more obvious (less obvious) the trend.

Mots clés : complexity; nonlinear; Tarim River Basin; chaos; fractal; complexnetwork; Self-organized criticality;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 17 octobre 2017