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Accueil du site → Doctorat → Royaume-Uni → 2016 → Vulnerability of water resources to climate change and human impact : scenario analysis of the Zayandeh Rud river basin in Iran

University of Birmingham (2016)

Vulnerability of water resources to climate change and human impact : scenario analysis of the Zayandeh Rud river basin in Iran

Javadinejad, Safieh

Titre : Vulnerability of water resources to climate change and human impact : scenario analysis of the Zayandeh Rud river basin in Iran

Auteur : Javadinejad, Safieh

Université de soutenance : University of Birmingham

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2016

Résumé
Water supplies have been meeting strict experiments all over the world and the tendencies of reducing precipitations and rising temperatures in the arid and semi-arid of the Middle-East region (such as Iran) aggravate this condition during the last few decades. A proper water planning needs productive Integrated Water Resource Management models that can respond these complicated troubles. The aim of this study was to develop a structure for applicable and efficient risk control of water supplies through drought. This management structure combines hydrological, socio-economic and water organization models. The methodology has three factors : 1) the statistical possessions of drought characterisation and drought trend in terms of space-time were examined and thresholds of drought warning are evaluated to assist as drivers for control programmes. 2) A water-planning model was applied to combine water accessibility and demand and examine the reliability of the water system to deliver the water to demand sites during the normal and drought episodes. 3) The model was used to estimates the future impacts of climate alteration, through driving them with simulations from an ensemble of statically downscaled CMIP5 model for the severest scenario in the 21st century. Moreover, some potential management plans that decrease the future hazard of water shortage were evaluated. The methods were tested in a case study in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Iran. The results indicated the important roles of both meteorological and anthropogenic elements on occurrence of drought and water shortages for past and future time.

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Page publiée le 29 septembre 2017