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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) 2008

Analysis of factors related to the distribution of red deer, Cervus elephus L., in Hustai national park, Mongolia

Thapaliya, K. (Kamal)

Titre : Analysis of factors related to the distribution of red deer, Cervus elephus L., in Hustai national park, Mongolia

Auteur : Thapaliya, K. (Kamal)

Etablissement de soutenance : University of Twente International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Grade : Master of Science in Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (2008)

Résumé
The effect of livestock grazing on distribution of wildlife is a key issue in conservation management. The aim of this study is to explore and analyze the spatial distribution of red deer ( Cervus elephus L.) in relation to livestock grazing. 301 species’ poin t records (15*15 m) for cow, horse, deer, sheep/goat and gazelle based on dung (pellets) counts and 30 environmental predictors were prepared in GIS environment. After screening these predictors, logistic regression model was further used to produce probability map of spatial distribution of deer in Hustai National Park, Mongolia. Chi Square illustrates significant association of park management (buffer and core zones) and distribution of the deer pellets as well as the distribution of marmots burrows. Our study of livestock and red deer association demonstrated significant negative association with abundance of sheep/goat pellets and negative association with cow dung abundance. However, positive association was observed with horse dung abundance. Logistic model (Nagelkerke R 2 =.752, AUC=.956, AIC= 209.3 ) shows higher probability of deer distribution with increasing elevation, higher slope steepness, nearer to the river and farther away from the roads. Elevation (Nagelkerke R 2 =.654, AUC=.929, AIC=169.9) alone explains deer distribution similar to our fin al model. Further analysis of elevation related factors was carried and this confirms human-induced threats (e.g . livestock guarding dogs, hunting, antlers collection etc.) and livestock grazing in the lower elevation might be causative factor governing occurrence of red deer in the higher elevation.

Mots clés : Red deer, Hustai National Park, Mongolia, GIS, modelling spatial distribution, logistic regression model, elevation

Version intégrale (ITC)

Page publiée le 1er février 2018