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International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) 2003

Regional impact of climate change and variability on water resources : case study Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya

Lukman, A.P. (Arlan Perkasa)

Titre : Regional impact of climate change and variability on water resources : case study Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya.

Auteur : Lukman, A.P. (Arlan Perkasa)

Etablissement de soutenance : University of Twente International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Grade : Master of Science in Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation 2003

Résumé
Water resources are interconnected with climate ; the prospect of climate change and variability will implies the water resources and regional development. The impacts of climate change and variability in regional scale are estimated by defining scenarios for changes in climatic inputs to a hydrological model from the output of general circulation models (GCMs).A physical-distributed based hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is applied to estimate and understand the hydrological behaviour of Lake Naivasha Basin. The model was calibrated to adequately represent the discharge response to precipitation for the historic period of 1935-2000 using long-term measured records. To analyze and assess the Lake Naivasha water level fluctuation, discharge output from SWAT has been incorporated with Water Balance Model of Lake Naivasha. Two periods of 30-years climate data has been used as base line and simulation condition. HadCM2GSai scenario is used for climate change and variability prediction, which reflect greenhouse gas forcing 1% increase per annum. The HadCM2GSai global mean temperature and precipitation change of the baseline (1961-1990) and 2010-2039 were provided to SW AT to simulate the changes in discharge due to changes in climate in regional scale. The model predicts, without abstractions, that climate change would affect the lake water level 4 meter lower than the condition that states without any climate change. Abstraction of the lake would accelerate the lake water level depletion. The major effects of climate change on the Lake Naivasha area and the water resources will be through changes in the hydrological cycle, temperature and precipitation. These factors are the controlling parameter of the lake water level and lake water volume and finally the water availability.

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Page publiée le 3 février 2018, mise à jour le 16 octobre 2018