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Accueil du site → Doctorat → Norvège → Renewable Resource Scarcity, Natural Disasters, and the Possibility of Collective Violence

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) 2012

Renewable Resource Scarcity, Natural Disasters, and the Possibility of Collective Violence

Theisen, Ole Magnus

Titre : Renewable Resource Scarcity, Natural Disasters, and the Possibility of Collective Violence

Auteur : Theisen, Ole Magnus

Université de soutenance : Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

Grade : Doctoral thesis 2012

Résumé
Will climate change and increasing population pressure on agricultural lands lead to more violence, and has it done so in the past ? While several case-studies claim to find strong linkages, the large-N literature has not converged on any robust findings. This thesis aims at testing the generality of the suggested linkages between renewable resource scarcity and conflict. Four important shortcomings are addressed. First, there is a mismatch between the scale of the units of analysis in the theory-generating case literature and the quantitative literature. Second, although there is agreement that renewable resource scarcity is most relevant for small-scale violence, most studies analyze civil conflicts. Third, contextual factors that make resource scarcity a pressing issue of survival are understudied. Finally, to understand local violence, one must rely on literature from microeconomics, psychology, disaster sociology, geography, and anthropology. This dissertation combines national and local levels of analysis to investigate internal violent conflict at many levels, from civil conflict at the extreme end to less intense forms of inter-communal violence. The set-up of the chapters addresses the issue of generalization vs. relevant contexts by analyzing both broader patterns over global or continental scales as well as analyzing countries that exhibit most of the theoretically relevant contextual factors. Two overarching conclusions can be drawn. First, renewable resource scarcity has at best only a marginal effect on civil conflicts. Testing a more fine-tuned version of the ‘drought breeds conflict’ argument fails to uncover any link between local drought and civil conflict onset. Second, in certain contexts renewable resource scarcity can both increase and decrease the risk of lower-level violence. In sum, this thesis runs counter to broad claims on that resource scarcity breads civil wars Présentation

Page publiée le 6 février 2018