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University of Kassel (2011)

The Moroccan solar plan. A comparative analysis of CSP and PV utilization until 2020

Richts, Christoph

Titre : The Moroccan solar plan. A comparative analysis of CSP and PV utilization until 2020

Auteur : Richts, Christoph

Etablissement de soutenance : University of Kassel

Grade : M.Sc. degree in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency for the MENA Region (REMENA ) 2011

The present master thesis conducts technical and economic simulations of large-scale Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants for the Moroccan Solar Plan. It provides a database of performance indicators such as energy yields, capacity factors, typical efficiencies and losses of technical components, LCOE, and difference costs (DC : LCOE minus avoided costs of the conventional power system) for fixed tilted, 1-axis horizontal, 1-axis vertical and 2-axis tracking PV and CSP with no, 6, 12 and 18 full load hours of thermal storage. HelioClim irradiation data of 2005 for the sites in Ouarzazate, Ain Ben Mathar, Boujdour, Laayoune and Tarfaya is used ranging between 1,927 - 2,428 kWh/m2/y (DNI) and 1,968 - 2,154 kWh/m2/y (GHI). In the base scenario minimum LCOE are 9.6 - 5.4 EURct/kWh for PV (2012 - 2020) varying between 0.90 - 1.55 EURct/kWh among sites and technologies. CSP reaches 12.8 - 9.2 EURct/kWh and a bandwidth of 2.3 - 1.6 EURct/kWh. Average DC are lowest for horizontal 1-axis tracking (0.4 and -7.7 EURct/kWh for plants built in 2012 and 2020 respectively) and CSP with 6 hours of storage (1.3 and -3.5 EURct/kWh). PV is cheaper for all sites and technologies due to higher learning curves and less initial investment, but cannot contribute to coverage of the daily evening peak in Morocco. Four different MSP-scenarios with 2000 MW of solar energy require total investments of 3.7 - 7.5 billion EUR and yield 7.9% - 12.8% of the electricity demand in 2020 (given a growth 7%/y) depending on the ratio of PV and CSP utilization. The average LCOE are 8.3 - 11.7 EURct/kWh and the total discounted DC (10%/y) are -254 - 391 million EUR. Thus, solar energy is partly less expensive than a business-as-usual scenario. An extensive sensitivity analysis for WACC and price escalation of conventional energy shows that for only PV and only CSP scenarios in 55 and 22 out of 72 cases the DC are negative - although no environmental costs for conventional generation are internalized. The weighted average extra costs of a feed-in tariff for the analyzed scenarios range between 0.4% - 8.1% of today’s electricity price until break-even with conventional energy.


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