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University of Kassel (2018)

Climate Change Impact Assessment of Basin-scale Water Allocation and Management in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran

Fereidoon, Majid

Titre : Climate Change Impact Assessment of Basin-scale Water Allocation and Management in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran

Auteur : Fereidoon, Majid

Université de soutenance : University of Kassel

Grade : Doctor of Engineering (Dr.-Ing.) 2018

Résumé partiel
Hydrological research is intended to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes, the role of hydrological systems in providing water for ecosystems and society, and of the water cycle in the functioning of the earth system. The proper understanding of the hydrology of arid and semi-arid regions is becoming increasingly important, due to diminishing projections of water resource availability in response to global environmental changes. The main objective of this thesis study is to investigate the development and management of water in a poorly gauged basin with large spatial and temporal gaps in the climatological parameters’ database, in order to improve the economic return on water use in this sector under different climate change scenarios. The study region is the Karkheh River Basin (KRB), a semiarid region located in southwest Iran, which has seen quite a degradation of its water resources over recent decades. This thesis work is divided into four individual research studies which have been published or being in review and are as follows : 1- Swat-model based identification of watershed components in a semi-arid region with long term gaps in the climatological parameters’ database Data gaps are ubiquitous in hydro-meteorological time series, and filling these values is necessary for any subsequent use of this data in hydrological studies. Two different gap-filling techniques, Inversed Distance Weighting (IDW) and Linear Regression with the Nearest station (LRN), for estimating daily precipitation and temperature series are evaluated. Overall, it can be stated that IDW performed slightly better than LRN. The interpolated data are then used for calibration and subsequent validation of the SWAT hydrological model on observed streamflow. Finally, the impact of the construction of large Karkheh dam (KR) on the downstream river discharge is assessed. The results show that the monthly outflows of the main river before the KR became operational have the same seasonal trends. However, once the dam became operational, notable reductions of the monthly discharge of more than 50% for the two stations Pay-e-Pol and Hamidiyeh downstream of the KR are obtained. 2- SWAT-MODSIM- PSO Optimization of Multi-Crop Planning in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran, under the Impacts of Climate Change A new coupled SWAT-MODSIM-LINGO-PSO (SMLP) model is developed to optimize multi-crop pattern in the downstream sections of the Karkheh dam (KR) under historic and future climate scenarios. To that avail, firstly the SWAT model for estimating river discharge and inflow to the KR is calibrated and validated. Secondly, the projected inflow to the KR is estimated using downscaled climate data for two future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) as input to the calibrated SWAT-model. Thirdly, SWAT–estimated KR-inflows are entered into the MODSIM water allocation model to build a reservoir-irrigation system model for the downstream section of the KRB. MODSIM allocates water strictly to the different agricultural regions under the given priority weights. At the same time, the potential crop yields and the associated potential water demands for each crop are determined with SWAT, with these values being further used to optimize the actual crop yield (under deficit irrigation), using LINGO linear programing. Multiplying the latter by the area under cultivation, the total water requirement for this crop is obtained, which is then defined as a demand node value in the MODSIM customization module. The different crop cultivation areas are then the decision variables in the final, iterative MODSIM-PSO process to optimally allocate water among the different cultivation areas, such that the total agricultural economic profits over the planning time horizons become maximal.


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