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Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina (2017)

Modelo de dinámica de sistemas para la adaptación al cambio climático de la ganadería altoandina

Pizarro Paz, Dante Mauricio

Titre : Modelo de dinámica de sistemas para la adaptación al cambio climático de la ganadería altoandina

Auteur : Pizarro Paz, Dante Mauricio

Université de soutenance : Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina

Grade : MAGISTER SCIENTIAE EN PRODUCCIÓN ANIMAL 2017

Résumé
The general objective of this research was to compare the productivity of different grazing strategies with llamas, alpacas and sheep under a climate change scenario. The specific objectives were a) to develop a dynamic simulation model for llama, alpaca and sheep herds under a climate change scenario with intermediate emissions and b) to compare the economic benefits between single-species and mixed (llama-sheep) grazing systems under these conditions. The system dynamics model was developed using Vensim software and was designed with a time horizon of one hundred years using a time scale of one year. Records from 2012 to 2015 of the Communal Cooperative San Pedro de Racco, located in Pasco Region, Peru were used. These records included birth, mortality, harvest and sale rates. Additionally, information from the rangeland evaluation of the Communal Cooperative and local experts were included. Three scenarios were simulated : The first scenario represented the current management (single-species grazing) of the cooperative’s llamas, alpacas and sheep herd, assuming constant current emissions. The second scenario reflected a decrease in grasslands and the displacement of grasslands by shrubs according to the projections made for the Peruvian Puna assuming intermediate emissions and the last scenario incorporated the llama-sheep mixed grazing. Once the simulations were run, an evaluation of the economic benefits was made, through the income obtained from the sale of meat, fiber, wool and male and female adults. The model, once calibrated, allowed to project the dynamics of the llamas, alpacas and sheep population for the next hundred years under a climate change scenario. The simulation concluded that the economic income in the scenario of climate change with intermediate emissions was lower than the income obtained in the scenario with constant current emissions and that the income per hectare in the scenario with mixed grazing was superior to the scenario with single-species grazing, suggesting that the mixed grazing system would be a good strategy for adaptation to climate change.

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