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National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) 2012

Water resources management in Pinios river basin under climate and socio-economic change using the WEAP21 software

Psomas, Alexandros G. ; Ψωμάς, Αλέξανδρος Γ.

Titre : Water resources management in Pinios river basin under climate and socio-economic change using the WEAP21 software

Διαχείριση υδατικών πόρων στη λεκάνη απορροής του ποταμού Πηνειού υπό καθεστώς κλιματικής και κοινωνικοοικονομικής αλλαγής με χρήση του λογισμικού WEAP21

Auteur : Psomas, Alexandros G. ; Ψωμάς, Αλέξανδρος Γ.

Etablissement de soutenance : National Technical University of Athens (NTUA)

Grade : Master Thesis 2012

Résumé partiel
The study area is Ali Efenti catchment, a subcatchment of the broader Pinios river basin in the northwest Thessaly region, Greece. The baseline period spans over the years 1995-2010 and the study period comprises of the years 2015-2030. The scope of the thesis is water resources management under climate and socio-economic change, with an additional integration of environmental requirements for the quantitative state of the surface and underground water bodies. The data which was gathered and processed included administrative boundaries, socio-economic organization, land use, geomorphology, geology and hydrogeology, climate and hydrometeorology, supply, demand, abstractions, conveyance, distribution, consumption and water treatment. The processing was executed with GIS software or spreadsheets. The study area hydrological and water resources management model was developed using WEAP21, developed by Stockholm Environment Institute. Model calibration was executed via WEAP21-Matlab conjunction. The selected optimisation algorithm was simulated annealing, which is integrated in the Optimization Toolbox of Matlab. The performance criteria used were Efficiency (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient), Correlation coefficient and Mean value bias. Calibration and validation results show good fitting of the model given the complexity of the study area and taking into account results from previous studies. Dynamically downscaled climatic timeseries, based on the A1B emission scenario, were obtained from the National Observatory of Athens. The climatic timeseries were compared with observed timeseries for the common historical period of 1980-2010. The overannual monthly mean and standard deviation were then corrected and the future timeseries were recalculated. Future socio-economic change was determined by developing the original socio-economic scenario G1 : Confident & Competitive Greece. This scenario follows the concept and the structure of the Markets First scenario of the GEO-4 report and the Economy First scenario of the european project SCENES. The underlying assumptions of the scenario are the globalization trend, the liberalization of the markets, the balanced exploitation of fossil fuels and renewable energy, the enhancement of decision-making at the supranational level and the decisive influence of Markets-Businesses in policy-making. In this scenario, Greece decides to elaborate and implement a Reconstruction and Development National Plan, which is formed with broad cooperation and consensus. The primary objectives of the plan are productive base improvement, competitiveness rise in terms of economic efficiency and quality, innovation fostering, entrepreneurship liberalization and openness promotion.

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