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National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) 2015

Methodological framework for the assessment of drought effects on water resources and agricultural production for proactive and operational planning

Tigkas, Dimitrios of Anastasios / Τίγκας, Δημήτριος

Titre : Methodological framework for the assessment of drought effects on water resources and agricultural production for proactive and operational planning

Μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο εκτίμησης επιπτώσεων ξηρασίας στους υδατικούς πόρους και στη γεωργική παραγωγή για τον προληπτικό και επιχειρησιακό σχεδιασμό

Auteur : Tigkas, Dimitrios of Anastasios

Etablissement de soutenance : National Technical University of Athens (NTUA)

Grade : Doctoral Thesis 2015

Résumé
Drought is one of the major natural hazards, with significant impact on several sectors of the society, the economy and the environment. The consequences of drought are more severe in developing regions, where there is limited administrative and technical infrastructure for securing vulnerable systems and devising sound proactive and operational plans. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the rational drought analysis for the assessment of drought effects on water resources and agricultural production. Emphasis is put on the data requirements and the structure of the proposed methodological framework, in order to be applicable in a wide range of regions, under different climatic conditions and for limited data availability. The basis of the research is the analysis and the characterisation of drought through the use of drought indices. Targeted modifications and enhancements of specific drought indices are proposed, taking also into account the role of climate change on drought characteristics. Further, the software DrinC (Drought Indices Calculator) is developed, including the standard and the proposed approaches of drought analysis, providing an integrated tool for the direct application of the methodology. The main parameter that is considered for the assessment of drought effects on water resources is the river runoff. For the investigation and simulation of runoff response to various climatic scenarios, the software Medbasin is developed, which includes two hydrological models (one on daily and one on monthly basis), along with several simulation tools. The drought effects are assessed through a series of actions, including the drought analysis, the runoff simulation under different climatic scenarios and the annual hydrological drought forecasting. Regarding the assessment of drought effects on agricultural production, emphasis is placed on the elements that determine the water requirements of the plant, using crop models and specific drought indices. The formulated approach is aiming, primarily, at assessing the effects of the phenomenon on specific crops and, additionally, at providing the means for the early estimation (1-3 months prior to harvest) of the anticipated damages, in order to take timely measures for mitigating the yield losses.

Présentation (National Archives PhD)

Page publiée le 6 mars 2019, mise à jour le 4 janvier 2022