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Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais – INPE (2017)

Os fatores influenciadores da vulnerabilidade socioeconômica e ambiental no Ceará : uma avaliação político-institucional

Bezerra Karine Rocha Aguiar

Titre : Os fatores influenciadores da vulnerabilidade socioeconômica e ambiental no Ceará : uma avaliação político-institucional

Auteur : Bezerra Karine Rocha Aguiar

Université de soutenance : Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais – INPE

Grade : Doutorado em Ciência do Sistema Terrestre 2017

Climate variations are being studied and observed around the world and their most severe consequences compromise the sustainability of the planet. In regions such as the semi-arid Northeast, the adversities of drought impacts directly or indirectly affect the population, thus exacerbating the pre-existing poverty situation. In the search for well-being livelihood, people intensify natural resources exploitation. In this vicious cycle, the combination of these peculiarities corroborates the triggering of the desertification process in the region. This process is the result of the climatic variation (incidence of more frequent and more severe droughts) and the disordered anthropic actions associated to the local physical factors. These aspects contribute to the local population becoming vulnerable to socio-environmental adversities. In this context, this research has the following objectives : 1) to identify the factors that contribute to increase or reduce the vulnerability of the populations affected by desertification, drought and poverty in the municipalities of Ceará State and how this exposure condition is influenced by the management policies, and 2) understand how vulnerability of populations may (or may not) be influenced by public policies and how much it affects the development of their adaptive capacity. Therefore, an integrated vulnerability index was developed that takes into account the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the population in the Ceará State. After this procedure, an exploratory spatial analysis was performed as a criterion for the selection of four target municipalities (Aquiraz, Juazeiro do Norte, Senador Pompeu and Piquet Carneiro) for the political-institutional evaluation. This analysis used the method of deductive research to investigate the political, institutional and public policy aspects that favored or not the development of the adaptive capacity of the population in question. Fiscal transfers from the federal government and municipal public expenditures data were used. Overall, the Integrated Vulnerability Index decreased between the evaluated years, mainly due to the reduction of the Sensitivity Index (driven by the improvement of the socioeconomic conditions of the population) and by the increase of the Adaptive Capacity Index (due to the implementation of 80% of the public policies considered. It was verified that in terms of resources received by the government of the Ceará State in the years 2004, 2007 and 2010, the priority themes concentrated massively on Charges, Health and Social Assistance, representing together almost 91% of the total amount transferred. This prioritization was also verified in the four municipalities evaluated. As for municipal expenditures, the spending was concentrated in Education and Culture and Health and Sanitation in the two evaluated years (2000 and 2010). It was concluded that in the municipalities where there was an increase in the level of vulnerability, the variables that contributed the most were related to the areas of infrastructure and agriculture, which were not prioritized by fiscal and budgetary policies at the time. It is suggested, among other future works, the realization of future scenarios for vulnerability in the Ceará Stateconsidering such relations, highlighting the constitutional actions signed or intended in the current political context.

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Page publiée le 14 avril 2019