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Northeast Agricultural University (2018)

Study on Regional Hydrological and Drought Characteristics Based on Multi- Drought Indexes and Multi-hydrological Models

Muhammad Abrar Faiz

Titre : Study on Regional Hydrological and Drought Characteristics Based on Multi- Drought Indexes and Multi-hydrological Models

Auteur : Muhammad Abrar Faiz

Grade : Doctoral Dissertation 2018

Université : Northeast Agricultural University

Résumé partiel
In Heilongjiang,China’s economic growth,an important role is being played by the Songhua River because of the river’s unique resources and natural conditions.The Songhua River Basin(SRB)serves as a major grain commodity basin and is located in the northeastern region of China.The stream flow in the Songhua River has dropped significantly in recent decades,which poses a serious threat to sustainable development and water management in the context of global warming.Therefore,the fidelity of precipitation extremes is very important for the assessment of natural disasters(i.e.,floods and drought).Droughts can have long-lasting impacts on ecosystem including stresses on natural system,economic losses and humanitarian disasters.Thus,it is necessary to study the variation in hydrological and meteorological behaviour for historical and future basis to make a comprehensive plan for water resources of the basin.For this Purpose,the current study was carried out using multiple hydrological models forced by point data and bias corrected precipitation from an ensemble of General Circulation Models(GCMs)to assess the hydrological and meteorological behavior of SRB.Furthermore,utilization of multiple drought indexes also carried out to analyze the historical and future drought behavior of the study area.This research used the snow cover data ;derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS),stream flow and meteorological records(precipitation(PP)and surface air temperature(SAT)).In addition,different GCMs and three RCPs(8.5,4.5 and 2.6)involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)and two Scenarios(SRES-A2,SRES-A1B)for the period of 1961 to 2005 and 2006 to 2099 were used to assess the stream flow variations and trends of climate variables in the SRB.Firstly,the snow cover trend was assessed to identify the impact of snow cover on stream flow.The results showed that the seasonal snow cover trend had no impact in changes in the stream flow.The snow cover was slightly increasing in the entire area,while the stream flow trend results displayed(22.21 m3/sec×year-1)a significant decline in the basin.Based on trend analysis,the water evaluation and planning tool(WEAP)integrated with PP,the APHRODITE precipitation product and SAT,were used to simulate the monthly stream flow and evaluate the impact of climate change on this stream flow during the 21stt century.Furthermore,the stream flow drought index(SDI)and Percent of normal index(PNI)were computed to project the drought conditions.The results indicated that in the 21stt century,the magnitude of SAT over the study area increased for three RCPs of 8.5,4.5,and 2.6 by5.82°C,2.44°C,and 1.12°C,respectively.The application of the WEAP model suggested a maximum decline in stream flow,reaching 24%until the end of the 21st century under future climate change scenarios.The stream flow drought indexes(SDI and PNI)demonstrated that chances of severe to extreme hydrological drought events were highest in 2059,2060 and2085,while in the remaining time period mild to moderate drought events may occurred in the entire study area.The results also exhibited that the mean drought duration,severity and intensity for the period of 2011 to 2099 under all scenarios may be[(A1B,12,-1.55,-0.12),(A2,12,-1.41,-0.09),(max.wetting and warming conditions,12,-1.37,-0.11)and(min.wetting and warming conditions,12,-1.69,-0.19)],respectively.Secondly,the evaluation and application of GCMs coupled with hydrological models(NedborAfstromnings Model(NAM),GRJ4 and WEAP)and drought indexes were used to assess the performance of hydrological models and drought behavior in the SRB.The results exhibited that WEAP and NAM presented better performance compared to GR4J in the SRB.By forcing hydrological models with bias corrected precipitation,the differences in predicting discharge by NAM,GR4J and WEAP were-25%,-29%and+3%respectively,compared to observed discharge.The results suggested that overall performance of WEAP was better than NAM and GRJ4 in the study area.The results also showed that application of multiple hydrological models is necessary to make better planning and management of agriculture and water resources in the region

Mots clés : Songhua River Basin; Climate change; Forecasting; Drought indexes; spatiotemporal characteristics; Multi-hydrological indexes;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 16 avril 2019