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University of Mohaghegh Ardabili (2018)

Assessing the effects of climate change on runoff and sediment rate in some watersheds of Ardabil Province

Aghabeigi, Nayer

Titre : Assessing the effects of climate change on runoff and sediment rate in some watersheds of Ardabil Province

Auteur : Aghabeigi, Nayer

Université de soutenance : University of Mohaghegh Ardabili

Grade : Master Thesis 2018

In recent years, the identification of effective factors and the impact of climate change on regional variations in runoff have been widely considered by hydrologists. Climate change will have an impact on water resources, which will change the amount, time and type of precipitation, impact on water quality, increased drought, increased water demand, changes in the type of water resources management, as well as increased discharge, increased sediment transport and, consequently, risks causes flooding and changes in river morphology. The effects of climate change on runoff or directly using past clocks and runoff series are estimated using hydrologic models in many studies. The purpose of this study is to obtain rainfall and temperature, runoff and sediment values for the upcoming periods (2011-2030). For this purpose, rainfall data, evaporation, temperature and hydrometric data of Ardabil province water were prepared monthly for selected stations in Ardabil watersheds. For modeling of climate change, the LARS_WG model was used and the HadCM3 cluster model was investigated with different groups. Using existing data, the IHACRES model was calibrated and validated for watersheds of Ardabil province. Using the LARS_WG temperature and precipitation data, the results of the A1B scenario were selected and future runoff using the IHACRES hydrologic model for the years 2030-2011). Then, using the data of discharge and observation sediment, the curve was mapped. Using the obtained equations and predicted discharge for the IHACRES hydrologic model, the amount of sediment was calculated for the future and the amount of sediment was determined at selected time intervals. In the present study, the average annual precipitation for the period 2030-2011 in the three climate scenarios A1B, A2, B1 is 269.5, 272.26 and 2558.9 mm, respectively. The highest precipitation is B1 scenario with 395.3 mm which will be in 2019, respectively, with scenario A2 with 3,290 mm in 2019, and A1B scenario with 313.73 mm for 2029.And the lowest rainfall for the A2 scenario is 174.3 mm for 2030, respectively for the A1B scenario of 194.7 mm for 2016 and 19.55 mm for the B1 scenario for 2029, respectively. Surface runoff in some watersheds of Ardabil province has been calculated using the IHACRES model and the model output as well as surface runoff in different time periods are compared in the upcoming period and the results of the runoff trend model for future years are shown. Also, the results indicate a decrease in runoff rates over the base period, so that in selected areas the reduction would be 24.9 percent in the fire station and 68 percent decrease in runoff compared to the base period. Then, using the equilibrium curve equation, the amount of sediment was obtained for the upcoming period, the results indicate a decrease in sediment content in the coming years. As in most stations, with decreasing rainfall in the years 2029 and 2030, the amount of sediment is significantly reduced, but in some years, due to increasing rainfall, the amount of sediment increases


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