Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Accueil du site → Master → Pays Bas → 2019 → Stochastic simulation model for investment decision making in a new beef cattle production system in Kazakhstan

Wageningen University (2019)

Stochastic simulation model for investment decision making in a new beef cattle production system in Kazakhstan

Zhanibekov, Askhat

Titre : Stochastic simulation model for investment decision making in a new beef cattle production system in Kazakhstan

Auteur : Zhanibekov, Askhat

Université de soutenance : Wageningen University

Grade : Master of Science (MS) Business Economics 2019

Résumé
The primary objective of the thesis was to perform economic feasibility analysis of investing in a new beef cattle production system in Kazakhstan, specifically in cow-calf operations. To reach this goal, a stochastic simulation model of a cow-calf operation was developed and used as a research tool. First, a basic deterministic model of the cow-calf operation was constructed with the following major blocks : (i) reproduction, backgrounding and feed production enterprises, (ii) the whole-farm budget, and (iii) the cash flow budget. Second, several variables, such as price for cattle’s live weight, calves’ average weight and feed costs were turned into stochastic as major factors affecting the economic feasibility of the cow-calf operation. Finally, NPV was used as a measure of economic feasibility of investments. The analysis revealed that investments into the cow-calf operation could be economically feasible in a long term, that is above 10 years, on condition that governmental investment subsidies were reinvested into the project. The study in overall may help investors to understand risks and implications of investing into the beef cattle farming in Kazakhstan. Smallholder farmers may benefit by adopting the developed model as an economic decisions-making tool in their beef cattle farming operations.

Mots Clés : stochastic simulation, economic budgets analysis, enterprise budget, whole-farm budget, cash flow budget, net present value, beef cattle production system, cow-calf operation

Présentation

Version intégrale (1 Mb)

Page publiée le 1er novembre 2019