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University of York (2005)

Quantitative policy analysis for sustainable development in water-stressed developing countries : a case study of Morocco

Kojima, Satoshi

Titre : Quantitative policy analysis for sustainable development in water-stressed developing countries : a case study of Morocco

Auteur : Kojima, Satoshi.

Université de soutenance : University of York

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) : 2005

Résumé
Sustainable development has become a widely acclaimed objective in the global policy arena, but its operational principles have not jet been established. The main objective of this thesis is to contribute to operationalising the concept of sustainable development through conducting quantitative analysis of sustainable development policies. A special attention is paid to water crisis in water-stressed developing countries and a case study of Morocco is conducted. Before developing an applied model for policy simulations, an analytical model based on Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans type growth model is constructed. The analytic model not only serves as a model platform of the applied model but also provides crucial insights to solutions of the applied model. The analytic model is studied both analytically and numerically and important policy insights are obtained. In addition, this combined analysis highlights the importance of following up qualitative analysis by quantitative simulations. Based on the implications provided by the combined analysis, the applied model is constructed by incorporating various stylised facts observed in water-stressed developing countries. This model is calibrated based on the Moroccan data for the year 1994, and also dynamically validated with time-series data of selected endogenous variables. The validation has been successful. Numerical simulations of sustainable development policies are conducted on the validated model. Due to stochastic elements in agricultural production and foreign exchange rates there exist gaps between expectations and realised outcomes. The policy simulations explicitly deal with these gaps and provide interesting policy insights. Major findings include (i) importance of public investment in both safe water access provision and the irrigation sector, (iii) impacts of exogenous drivers on sustainable development policies, and (iii) importance of international aid flows to implement sustainable development through mitigating severe water consumption suppression caused by optimal pricing schedules.

Présentation : EThOS (UK)

Accès au document : Proquest Dissertations & Theses

Page publiée le 6 juin 2009, mise à jour le 22 octobre 2018