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Ahmadu Bello University (2018)

PREDICTIVE MODELLING OF DESERTIFICATION IN JIBIA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF KATSINA STATE, NIGERIA

TANIMU, Hadiza Ahmed

Titre : PREDICTIVE MODELLING OF DESERTIFICATION IN JIBIA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF KATSINA STATE, NIGERIA

Auteur : TANIMU, Hadiza Ahmed

Université de soutenance : Ahmadu Bello University

Grade : MASTER OF SCIENCE IN REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM 2018

Résumé
Jibia Local Government Area is characterized by low amount of rainfall, high temperature and low humidity which have caused frequent drought in the area and over time this has affected the socio-economic lives of the inhabitants. Therefore, desertification in Jibia Local Government Area of Katsina State, Nigeria‟ becomes evident. MEDALUS methodology was used to determine the causative factors of desertification in the study area. Landsat TM (1990) ; Landsat ETM (2000) ; and Landsat 8 of 2015 were used. Markov model was used to predict changes in desertification process up to year 2030. A total of 400 respondents were sampled using random sampling technique for questionnaire administration. Results on classified satellite imageries showed a considerable decrease in vegetation and an increase in desertification. Between the years 1990 and 2000 (10 years) about 17.8% of the total study area was affected by desertification, that means approximately 1.8% of the area was affected yearly. However, between 2000 and 2015 the rate increased where more than 100% of the total land area was affected at the rate of 8.0% annually. Between 1990 and 2015, total land area affected by desertification amounted to 277.4sqkm. Results on prediction indicated desertification increase from 450.84sqkm in 2015 to 485sqkm of the total land area to be engulfed by desertification by the year 2030. The results obtained from respondents showed that desertification is a menace with serious consequences with majority of the people being aware of for more than a decade. The respondents also believe that climate change and anthropogenic factors are the major causes of the problem. Results also showed that desertification has negative impact on agricultural activities. Recommendations proffered include intensification of afforestation and reforestation exercise, provision of alternative forms of energy for cooking, provision of grazing lands, community participation and enlightenment campaigns, provision of robust database and information banks on desertification.

Mots clés : PREDICTIVE MODELLING, DESERTIFICATION, JIBIA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA, KATSINA STATE, NIGERIA

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