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Agricultural University of Athens (2017)

Development, implementation and evaluation of drought and desertification risk indicators for the integrated management of water resources

Tsesmelis, Demetrios of Emmanuel / Τσεσμελής, Δημήτριος

Titre : Development, implementation and evaluation of drought and desertification risk indicators for the integrated management of water resources

Ανάπτυξη, εφαρμογή και αξιολόγηση δεικτών επικινδυνότητας ξηρασίας και ερημοποίησης για την ολοκληρωμένη διαχείριση των υδατικών πόρων

Auteur : Tsesmelis, Demetrios of Emmanuel / Τσεσμελής, Δημήτριος

Etablissement de soutenance : Agricultural University of Athens

Grade : Thesis 2017

Résumé
The present work refers to the implementation of the integrated water resources management methodology for the development of a tool in the form of an index for the recognition of droughts and pertinent vulnerable areas. Such an attempt is further expanded in an effort to produce the connection of vulnerability to drought with that to desertification. Greece is sensitive to drought phenomena (random and periodical). This is a consequence of predominant spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in the area, expressed with the existing climatic succession of wet (October-March) and dry periods (April-September). Specifically, lower precipitation values during the wet periods could cause serious issues in the water resources availability. Regular observation and processing of meteorological data as well as concurrent application of contingency planning are necessary in order to deal with such issues. Early recognition and possible prevention could be achieved through the estimation of simple and composite drought indices of an area. In this context, the development of a composite index was presented, that included six indicators, namely categorized SPI (cSPI6 and cSPI12), Demand, Supply, Impacts and Infrastructures. The Standardized Drought Vulnerability Index is attempting to relate with all the aspects of drought (meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic) and provide an estimation procedure. Thereafter, the relation between the indicators was examined and weights with statistical and empirical methods were developed. The composite index was implemented in various conditions (existing, real and artificial generated data for scenarios testing) and in different areas (Greece and South Eastern Europe with data from 324 meteorological stations for a period of more than 30 years). The initial hypothesis of equal weighting and the method of principal components expressed the vulnerability estimation more effectively. Furthermore, it was analyzed whether there was a correlation between drought and desertification vulnerability. To associate these attempts, a similar classification of these composite indices into three classes (low, medium and high) was necessary. Based on this assumption a relationship between drought and desertification vulnerability was surfaced. Finally, the indicators of both procedures were analyzed and a composite index was created, which shows the water resources and soil degradation of a region. The indicators that have occurred in the final equation are Αridity, Water Demand, Drought Impacts, Drought Resistance, Water Resources Infrastructure, Land Use Intensity, Parent Material, Rainfall, Slope and Soil Texture. All in all, it would be appropriate for further research to implement this methodology in other regions worldwide.

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