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Cairo University (2010)

Impact of Climate Change on the Upper Blue Nile Catchment Flows using IPCC Scenarios

Mohamed Salah Abdel-Aziz

Titre : Impact of Climate Change on the Upper Blue Nile Catchment Flows using IPCC Scenarios

تاثير التغيرات المناخية علي تصرفات الحوض الصباب العلوي للنيل الأزرق وفقا لسيناريوهات تغير المناخ

Auteur : Mohamed Salah Abdel-Aziz

Etablissement de soutenance : Cairo University

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2010

Résumé
The Upper Blue Nile catchment is chosen as a case study in this research as it supplies Egypt with nearly 60% of its annual transboundary share. Three statistical downscaling techniques (Delta, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Bias-Correction) are investigated for three chosen general circulation models (GCMs) (CGCM 3.1, CNRM-CM3 and GFDL-CM2) ; each tested for two IPCC scenarios ; the mid-high (A2) and the low scenarios (B1). The results of downscaling are used as inputs for the hydrological modeling to predict the Upper Blue Nile catchment flows using HEC-HMS. The corresponding range of change in flow values are transferred to the High Aswan Dam (HAD).

Mots Clés : Climate Change, Downscaling, ANN, Hydrological Modeling, Delta, Bias-Correction, River Nile

Présentation

Page publiée le 12 avril 2020