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University of Gezira (2018)

Climate Change Trends and Their Impact on Sorghum Productivity : A Case Study of Gedarif and Gezira State, Sudan (1970-2015)

Abubakr, Amal Ahmed Osman

Titre : Climate Change Trends and Their Impact on Sorghum Productivity : A Case Study of Gedarif and Gezira State, Sudan (1970-2015)

Auteur : Abubakr, Amal Ahmed Osman

Université de soutenance : University of Gezira

Grade : Master of Science (MS) In Agricultural Economics 2018

Résumé
Global climate change is one of the greatest challenges for humanity today. This study aims to monitor climate factors trends and identify the climate change impacts on sorghum productivity under rain-fed mechanized and traditional farming in Gedarif and Gezira States. The problem of this study is that sorghum productivity in recent years has become very low,that sorghum crop is sensitive to climate change specifically the increasing in temperature and the decreasing in rainfall, and the value of local knowledge in climate change studies has received little attention. Data from secondary sources was used in this study. Climate data which include annual rainfall, average monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are obtained from Sudan Meteorological Authority (SMA). Production data which include time series data of sorghum yield was obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. Descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient, trend analysis and multiple regressions were used for data analysis. Trend analysis in Gedarif recorded non-significant reduction in the annual rainfall during the period 1970-2015(p=0.121). On the other hand, Gezira and Gedarif states recorded highly significant increases in minimum (p=0.004, p=0.0000) and maximum (p=0.000,p=0.000) temperatures.Sorghum yield in the two states were gradually decreasing during the period 1970 to 2015. Correlation coefficients results showed clear relationships between sorghum productivity and climate factors in the two states. The result of multiple regressions showed significant and positive effect of climate factors on sorghum productivity. This result supports the fact that an increase in rainfall improves sorghum productivity, the maximum temperatures have a negative and significant effect on the productivity of sorghum. To cope with climate change impacts, the study recommended that increasing awareness of farmers about the effects of climate change on crops, in addition to introduction of short maturing cultivars and water harvesting techniques.

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