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University of Mohaghegh Ardabili (2016)

The relationship between per capita income and tourism

Jenabi Oskuie, Rozita and Seifollahi, Naser and Hazeri, Hatef and Nemati, Vali

Titre : The relationship between per capita income and tourism

بررسی رابطهی بین درآمد سرانه و گردشگری

Auteur : Jenabi Oskuie, Rozita and Seifollahi, Naser and Hazeri, Hatef and Nemati, Vali

Université de soutenance : University of Mohaghegh Ardabili

Grade : Master 2016

Résumé
The tourism industry has a special place in the world so that, according to the World Tourism Organization statistics income from international tourism will reach about 2000 billion$ in 2020. Also this industry has a strategic and valuable place in perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, so that according to the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the number of tourists should increase to 5.1 percent in 1404, that mean Iran should absorb nearly 20 million tourists from global market annually and Iran’s share in world tourism income should grow to 2% in 1404 that mean Iran should make money nearly 25 billion dollars in 1404 from tourism arrivals However, the current situation is unsatisfactory and it shows difficult way of Iran to access to 2 percent of global tourism income . The aim of This Research is studying the impact of changes in per capita income and the inflation rate on the number of outbound tourists. Given that tourism provides Stable and increasing foreign exchange earnings to the countries thus it seems important identifying the impact of changes in per capita income and inflation rates on the number of outbound tourists according to this relationship we can plan to attract the tourists to the countries. In this research the outbound tourism is considered as the dependent variable and per capita income and inflation are considered as the independent variables and the main issue, is expressed as follows : what effect have changes in per capita income and inflation on outbound tourism ? This study is among the functional studies and in terms of data collection, research is descriptive and econometric modeling of the study is based on panel data model and uses the specialized econometric software Eviews. Statistical population of study is included OECD countries and developing countries in the period of 1995-2014. The data obtained from the World Bank. The main finding of this research is that given the nature of per capita income and inflation, in this study we achieved that there is a positive relationship between per capita income and outbound tourism and there is negative relationship between inflation and outbound tourism.

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