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Université du Xinjiang (2019)

Potential Geographical Distribution of Endangered Plant (Gymnocarpos Przewalskii) in Xinjiang

阿尔曼·解思斯;

Titre : Potential Geographical Distribution of Endangered Plant (Gymnocarpos Przewalskii) in Xinjiang

Auteur : 阿尔曼·解思斯;

Grade : Master’s Theses 2019

Université : Université du Xinjiang

Résumé partiel
As the main biological germplasm resources in the Gobi and desert areas,desert plants are an important part of the desert ecosystem.Gymnocarpos przewalskii Maxim.is a national first-class key protected plant identified by the State Forestry Administration in 1997 when the National Key Protected Wild Plant Resources Survey was conducted.Central Asia is endangered species and ancient Mediterranean remnants.This paper obtains the actual distribution point data of naked fruit trees in Xinjiang through field surveys and published papers on dissertation,journal articles and conference papers,as well as domestically published specimens.Screening,a total of 97 sample data.With the support of ARCGIS,the spatial distribution characteristics of the sample data were analyzed,and the distribution status of the naked fruit trees of the relict species was clarified,which laid the foundation for the model simulation.Using the two niche models of MAXENT and GARP,19bioclimatic variables were selected to predict the potential distribution of the endangered species naked fruit in Xinjiang,and the contribution of each environmental variable to the distribution pattern of naked fruit trees was analyzed.The optimal model was selected to predict the distribution of human activity disturbance on the distribution of naked fruit trees.Under the future climate model of RCP4.5,the potential distribution pattern of bare fruit trees in 2050(2041-2060)and2070(2061-2080)was predicted.The distribution area is compared with the distribution area and environmental variables under current climatic conditions,and the accuracy of the model is tested.According to the research results,the corresponding protection strategies are proposed.The results show:1.The main distribution area of naked fruit trees in Xinjiang is located in the continuous distribution area of the vast alluvial fan and the alluvial plain on the Gobi south of the Tianshan Mountains.The Hami area in the eastern Tianshan Mountains,the Qitai,Mulei in the northern Tianshan Mountains and the Gobi area in the northern part of the Altun Mountains are bare fruit trees.Three discontinuous distribution areas.The specific natural distribution area is located in Qitai County of Changji Prefecture,north of Hami City in the eastern Tianshan Mountains,and south of Balikun,Yiwu County,Shanshan County,Toksun County,Heshuo County,and Korla City.Counties such as Luntai County,Kuche County,Baicheng County,Wensu County,Akto County,Wushi County,Wuqi County,Shule County,Shufu County and Ruoqiang County.2.Under the current climatic conditions,the MAXENT model was used to calculate the total area of the potential suitable area of bare fruit trees was 43845 km 2,and the total area of potential suitable areas and potential medium-sized areas was20659 km 2.The GARP model predicted the potential area of bare fruit trees.The area is 444,079 km 2.The superior and medium-adapted areas predicted by the GARP model include the area of northern Xinjiang,and the area of the distribution area is significantly different from the actual distribution area of the naked fruit in Xinjiang.At the same time,the MAXENT model training set and test set AUC

Mots clés : Gymnocarpos przewalskii Maxim; Maximum Entropy(MAXENT); Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction(GARP); human activity; climate change;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 28 avril 2020